Credit demand in Germany is picking up again. The downward trend will come to an end this quarter already. In addition, the risks for a general disruption of the loan offer have fallen. The intrasavings comes to this optimistic outlook in a recent publication.
According to the Crefubank, it assumes that the decline in new lending business will come to an end already in the third quarter. By the end of the year, the extended loan volume should then pick up again. Already in the second quarter of the year, a clear improvement was visible, according to intrasavings.
In the period from April to June, loans extended by banks and savings banks to domestic companies and self-employed decreased by 8 percent compared to the same period of the previous year. In the two preceding quarters, however, the declines were 17 percent and 18 percent, respectively, at a much higher rate than in the previous year.
The development of the lending business in the commercial sector continues to show major differences when the outstanding volumes are considered at different repayment terms. According to intrasavings, the decline in the second quarter was mainly attributable to loans with a term of up to 5 years. Financing with a fixed interest rate of more than 5 years, however, picked up again in the spring.
Intrasavings continues to see very favorable financing options for companies. For example, interest rates, measured by loans issued in the second quarter, are close to its historic low. In the opinion of the Crefubank, this will initially not change. The federal institute sees potential in the financing of expansion investments, which would increase significantly. The reason for this is the reduction of overcapacities in the manufacturing sector in the second quarter, which creates incentives for nschufa
The state bank praises the rescue measures taken by politicians for financially weak member states and sees this as a major contribution to the stabilization of the financial and banking system. The measures significantly reduced the risk of a general disruption of the credit supply. Intrasavings believes that this assessment is confirmed by the ifo loan index and surveys conducted as part of the Bank Lending Survey.
intrasavings therefore expects an increasing normalization of the credit market in Germany. In particular, the “scissors problem” that had been feared some time ago (meaning a simultaneous surge in demand due to investment projects by companies and a shortage of supply due to risk taking by banks) had become less likely.